EVALUATION OF RISK ELEMENT IN REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT IN NEW NYANYA

EVALUATION OF RISK ELEMENT IN REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT IN NEW NYANYA

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1       Background of the Study

The growing expectation of any investor is to achieve maximum satisfaction in his investment. To attain the investment objective of maximizing wealth, maximizing returns and minimizing risks as a prudent investor will be paramount; therefore, investors choose between ranks of alternative investments.  The term risk is seen as the probability of loss of income, assets or condition of mishap, unfortunate situation or circumstances that result in the decline of revenue or loss of income, property, wealth and other items having economic and financial values. In statistics, risk relates to a situation where a probability or weight can be assigned to a possible outcome arising from a policy decision (Enever and Isaac,1997).

In the financial sense, risk is somewhat more intricate than the calculation of historical or expected returns. It is the possibility that an investor will lose some or all of the initial investment. Such conditions are the outcomes of a fall in product demand, high competitive pressure, unfavourable government policies, poor economic conditions, community uprising, industrial disharmony and management inefficiencies. Environmental factors such as changing weather conditions and environmental degradation are also noted to have adverse effect on investment. The international component of risk is relatively more complex, which arises from divergent economic policies, political and cultural ideologies thus making management of risk across national boundaries a difficult task. From the real estate investment perspective, risk is seen as the level of probability that a required return will be achieved when measured in terms of capital value and income.

As an investment, some properties have a high-risk profile while others have low-risk profile. This depends on the type, nature, location and possibly, the lease term of the property. Over time, the variance of actual return from expected return can be measured and used to help determine probability level. Risk is a deviation from the expected return and not just the chance that the return on an investment will be below expectations (Geddes, 2002). Thus, risk is about the interaction of future returns, which can have a number of possible results, and the chances that any particular outcome will occur. It is all about variances and probabilities. The degree to which actual performance may exceed the expected performance is called the upside potential while the amount by which it falls below expectation is known as the downside risk. Investors are concerned with the upward potentials, particularly when the investment is funded by borrowed capital. Upward potential is the actual bonus over and above the targeted return (Dubben and Sayce, 1991).

Another possible real estate risk investors may face as a real estate investor in Nigeria is government or political risk. Because of the wide ranging power of the executive arm of government and fluidity of functions, the government could acquire private land but the land so acquired must be for public purposes. Unfortunately, there are several instances where government had acquired private land for “public purposes” and “development control” only to turn around and allocate to other individuals to use for their own private projects. Some have experienced their Certificate of Occupancy revoked by a new government due to the fact that the owner does not belong to the same political party. This kind of policy inconsistency is a major discouragement to investors. They should be that as it may, whenever investors are planning to purchase a land in an area, engage professionals (e.g. Estate Surveyors and valuers) to confirm whether or not the land is under acquisition by government or could not be sold (Black, 1986).

There are also financial risks involved in real estate investment. If an investor decides to use a bank loan to buy a property, there is need for the awareness that what we call mortgages in Nigeria, is technically a residential loan. Ideally, a real estate/home loan should be a single-digit interest loan, but what Nigeria currently have are double – digit residential loans. Although, the government established a National Housing Fund (NHF) single-digit-interest loan that could advance a contributor up to N25m, many have not been able to access the loan due to bureaucratic bottlenecks and red tape. Some who have accessed the loan have had to apply for a bridging loan at residential double-digit interest rates in order not to miss their desirable property.

Risk is a common feature of all forms of investment including real estate and fundamental to investment choice. Therefore, any investor who embarks on a project development or acquires a property expects some benefits as future returns. Like any other form of investment, real estate has two principal components: expected return and risk. In an ideal situation, an investor is expected to maximize returns while minimizing risk. Therefore, the investor assumes risk with the hope of making profit or other forms of return. Risk assumption depends on past investment operation, future projection, trend in the economy, government intervention programmes and the expected returns from the investment. Often, the actual returns from the investment may vary from the projected returns. In some cases, the invested capital is lost. According to Ubom (2010), the degree of variability of the actual return from the estimated return of the investment as well as the probability of the loss of capital reflects the risk elements of investment. The higher the degree of such variability, the higher the risk involved and vice versa; and the greater the risk involved in a project, the greater the expected rate of return or cost of capital. The problems associated with investment risk cannot be totally eliminated even in an ideal economic situation. Real estate investors come across various types of risk in the course of embarking on projects and in the life of the projects.

Investment risk may be examined on the basis of the fundamental components or sources of risk and making predictions on how future returns will be affected by each fundamental risk. Risks have been variously classified into business, financial, interest rate, market and business power risks. Other forms of risk are political risk, tenant risk, sector risk, structural risk, taxation risk, planning risk, legal risk, comparative risk, timing risk and holding period risk, risk of unplanned obsolescence as well as management or union risk (Bowlinet al., 1980; Okafor, 1983; Messner, 1984; Dubben and Sayce, 1991;Ajayi, 1998; Geddes, 2002; Chandra, 2010; and Udoudoh, 2016). These risks are collectively described as investment risk. The goal of an ideal investor is to embark on any project or scheme that involves minimum risk with an expectation of maximum profit.

 In New Nyanya where this study is based, there has been phenomenal growth in real estate investment due to the influx of people and investors from other parts of the country as well as the ongoing renaissance in infrastructural development. There is therefore the need to empirically evaluate the risk element in real estate investment in New Nyanya in order to generate a roadmap that would guide prospective investors in the real sector.

1.2       Statement of Problem

It is very important for investors in residential real estate to first ascertain the risk factors of an investment asset before committing investment funds to such investment. Investors’ informed decisions with respect to the risk and develop strategies of real estate investments in order to ensure profitability. Residential real estate investment is usually rental properties intended to generate a return from rental income or capital appreciation. Investments in these real estate assets are associated with multiple risk complexities which includes: investment illiquidity, asset value volatility, asset valuation inaccuracies, leverage-amplifying negative performance during falling markets, limited/ imperfect benchmarks to gauge closed-end fund performance, combination of a large lot size (capital intensive investments) and high transaction costs. However, the researcher will provide an overview of real estate investment risks in New Nyanya and Nigeria at large.

1.3       Aim And Objectives Of Study

The primary aim of this study is to evaluate risk element in real estate investment in New Nyanya. The objectives of the study included:

1. To examine the various forms of investment available to the real estate investor in New Nyanya
2. To identify the qualities expected from an investment that is attractive to the investor.
3. To highlight the various stages of real estate development.
4. To examine the different elements of risk in relation to the various stages of real estate development.

1.3       Research questions

1. What are the various forms of investment available to the real estate investor in New Nyanya?
2. What are the qualities expected from an investment that is attractive to the investor?
3. What are the various stages of real estate development?
4. What are the different elements of risk in relation to the various stages of real estate development?

1.5       Significance Of The Study

The finding of this study will be of benefit to the following groups; firstly, investors who bear the cost of property development, secondly, the tenants and thirdly, real estate firms who are involved in the management of properties. This will again enable the investors to understand the trends of property investment as it relates to its cost in the face of risk. The research will also be of great importance to students and researchers who are interested in studying the real estate investment risk on residential properties.

The government and the financial sectors regulators (CBN) will find this research useful as it highlights the risk of residential real estate investment /development and provision of sustainable housing for her teaming citizens.

1.6       Scope and Limitations of the Study

The study helps to evaluate risk element in real estate investment in New Nyanya. Some factors militated against the success of this work, though the researcher endeavoured to accommodate them. Thus, some of the constraints inherent in the course of carrying out the research include, among others, the peculiar nature of real property market. It is not like commercial markets where one can easily come face to face with both the buyers and sellers to get information he wants. In real property market, information is not easily circulated among Estate Surveyors. Vital information required by the researcher from some respondent Estate Surveyors were not collected due to pressure of work and other commitments facing them during the time the researcher required those information.

1.7       Definition Of Operational Terms

Market analysis: The market analysis is activity of gathering information about conditions that affect a market. A market analysis studies the attractiveness and the dynamics of a specific market within a special industry.

Development risk: Development risk is defined as the risk that the leasing or sale of the project will generate insufficient returns to cover cost and create the desired return due to a lack of sales or inadequately meeting the needs of the market in terms of type and location. The more unusual a particular type of project is for the developer, the higher the chance that the developer will misread the market and the higher the development risk. (DICKINSON, 2001)

Building site risk: This is the risk that the selected site is unsuitable, or needs to be modified at cost to become suitable, for the intended use due to environmental issues (such as contamination) or its natural characteristics (stability, water levels, subsidence etc.) (DICKINSON, 2001)

Risk Management: Risk management as a systematic and integrated approach to the management of the total risk that a company faces. Risk management is the process of identifying, assessing and controlling threats to an organisation’s risk. (DICKINSON, 2001)

Market Value: This is the worth of an interest in property in which measurable buyers and sellers would agree to, when referred to market with existence of condition for comparative market application. Market value can also be defined as the higher price in terms of money which a property should bring in comparative or open market under all condition requisite to a fair sale, the buyer and seller each acting prudently, knowledge and assuming the price is not affected by undue stimulus. (Wendth and Paul, 1979)

Value: This is the monetary worth of a thing that is expressed as the value of the goods or services measured by the amount of other goods and services for which it will be exchange. (Wendth and Paul, 1979)

Residential Properties: Residential properties are those properties that are occupied for the purposee of providing shelter to the occupants and serves as a habitation for them. Residential properties are properties providing housing accommodation, (Leramo,1992)  Residential properties are generally constructed to mean property primarily acquired for residence and its attributed to giving shelter, security, comfort, privacy, investment, and personal identify, (Malady and O’ Donneland, 1994).

Property: Legally there are two types of property. They are real property which is land and buildings and personal property that is all kinds of personal possession. In economic the term property means anything that yield interest or income to the owner, The terms property  is defined as the bundle of right invested in a persons or a co operate bodies over a specific parcel of land, buildings object, e.t.c in the relation to other persons which gives right  to use and enjoy and control on  the land.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RISK MANAGEMENT PRACTICES AND PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY

 

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RISK MANAGEMENT PRACTICES AND PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1     BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

The construction industry, perhaps more than most, is overwhelmed with risks (Deviprasad, 2007). Ehsan et al. (2010) iterated that it is highly risk prone, with complex and dynamic project environments creating an atmosphere of high uncertainty and risk. The industry is vulnerable to various technical, sociopolitical and business risks. Deviprasad, (2007) further stated that too often this risk is not dealt with satisfactorily and the industry has suffered poor performance as a result. According to Pritchard (2001), most of the decisions, including the simplest ones, involve risks. The procedure of taking a project from inception to completion, and then into use is a complex one that entails time-consuming design and production processes (Ahmed, 2004 in Opolot et al. undated). The main role in project management activities is to drive the operations in order to reach or to overcome the expectations of those who decided on the investment, the stakeholders (Monetti, et al., 2006).  Risk management is fundamental to accomplish those objectives, not only trying to keep away from bad results caused by some special events or uncertain conditions, but also acting as a guide in order to maximize the positive results.

Risk Management refers to the culture, processes, and structures that are directed toward effective management of risks –including potential opportunities and threats to project objectives. Although risk is widely studied, it still lacks a clear and shared concept definition: risk is often only perceived as an unwanted, unfavorable consequence.

Risk management may be described as a systematic way of looking at areas of risk and consciously determining how each should be treated. It is a management tool that aims at identifying sources of risk and uncertainty, determining their impact, and developing appropriate management response (Uher, 2003). A systematic process of risk management has been divided into risk identification, risk assessment,  risk mitigation and risk monitoring.  An effective risk management method can help to understand not only what kinds of risks are faced, but also how to manage these risks in different phases of a project. Owing to its increasing importance, risk management has been recognized as a necessity in most industries today, and a set of techniques have been developed to control the influences brought by potential risks (Schuyler, 2001; Baker, 2005).

Compared with many other industries, the construction industry is subject to more risks due to the unique features of construction activities, such as long period, complicated processes, abominable environment, financial intensity and dynamic organization structures (Flanagan, 1993; Akintoye,1997; Smith, 2003). Hence, taking effective risk management techniques to manage risks associated with variable construction activities has never been more important for the successful delivery of a project. Previous research has mainly focused on examining the impacts of risks on one aspect of project strategies with respect to cost (Chen et al., 2000), time (Shen, 1997) and safety (Tam et al., 2004). Some researchers investigated risk management for construction projects in the context of a particular project phase, such as conceptual/feasibility phase (Uher, 1999), design phase (Chapman, 2001), construction phase (Abdou, 1996), rather than from the perspective of evaluation of the management of the risk.

Risk management is one of those ideas, that sense that a logical, consistent and disciplined approach to the future’s uncertainties will allow us to live with them prudently and productively, avoiding unnecessary waste of resources. It goes beyond faith and luck, the twin pillars of managing the future before we began learning how to measure probability (Risk management reports, 1999).

Risk management is one of the most critical project management practices to ensure a project is successfully completed. Royer (2000) stated that experience has shown that risk management must be of critical concern to project managers, as unmanaged or unmitigated risks are one of the primary causes of project failure. Risk management is thus in direct relation to the successful project completion. Project management literature describes a detailed and widely accepted risk management process, which is constructed basically from four iterative phases: risk identification, risk estimation, risk response planning and execution, often managing the risk management process is included (Klemetti, 2006).         

1.2 THE NEED FOR THE STUDY

Risk management practice increases the likelihood of project performance in the Nigeria construction industry. It provides a holistic view of risks, challenges and potential problems and builds processes to help construction companies in monitor and manage them. This not only reduces the cost of housing project, but gives organization valuable strategies to reduce risk associated with project investments and tactical project activities. The construction company management will increase confidence in knowing that project will meet targeted goals and achieve expected outcome.

The professionals in construction industry will have information on factors that affect effective risk management in public housing construction projects. This will enable them to conscientiously incorporate risk management in their professional work and that would result in better project performance. The government in the developing policies regarding project risk management and other regulatory requirements of house scheme project in Nigeria. The policy maker will gain insight how well to incorporate the sector effectively to ensure effective mitigation of project risks for the building construction projects to achieve high project success. The study will contribute to the general body of knowledge and form a basis for further research.

1.3 STATEMENT OF THE RESEARCH PROBLEM

Although technical issues are a primary concern both early on and throughout all project phases, risk management must consider both internal and external sources for cost, schedule, and technical risk. Early and aggressive detection of risk is important because it is typically easier, less costly, and less disruptive to make changes and correct work efforts  rather than the later, phases of the project. Many companies and organizations in the construction industry have an idea of risk management but do not implement it because they are not ready for possible challenges. Such as; increase in cost, time wasting, altered quality and also unhealthy scenario for workers (Deviprasadh, 2007).

In countries such as United States of America, United Kingdom and Canada, risk management has become a universal management process involving quality of thought, quality of process and quality of action (Sesel, 2003). In Nigeria however, the adoption of the risk management concept has been largely a part of the banking and financial sectors of the economy arising from responses to crisis that evolved within the financial sector of the economy in early 1990’s. With the emergence of the Project management profession in the late 1990s and the growing need to move organizations upward by adopting project management methodologies, risk management has become an integral part of the project architecture, being adopted by firms in Nigeria (Klemetti, 2006).  The uncertainties in the Nigerian situation vis-a-vis  the economical, political, environmental, social, cultural and financial environment in which the project is operated increases the uncertain outcomes which the risk management concept essentially attempts to predict and avert. This on the other hand may have a relationship with the performance of these projects. Global competition and technological innovations have increased the pressure in most Nigerian companies to deliver projects on time, within budget and with an acceptable quality of the deliverables of the project (Ehsan, (2006).

One of the major reasons for ineffective projects delivery in the Nigerian construction industry is the improper assessment of risk factors (Joshua, 2007). Many companies are not even aware of the kind or form of risks that they face in the process of construction. As a result the industry continues to suffer poor performances with many projects failing to meet time and cost targets (Joshua, 2007).  This study is going to examine the relationship between risk management practice and project performance in Nigerian construction industries.

1.4 AIM AND OBJECTIVE

1.4.1  AIM

This research is to analyze the relationship between risk management practices and project performance in Nigeria construction industry with a view to enhance the overall performance of Nigeria construction Industry.

1.4.2  OBJECTIVES

In order to achieve the above aim, the following specific objectives shall be pursued:

1. To find out if there is any significant relationship between risk management practice and project performance of Nigerian construction industry.
2. To articulate the existing risk management practices in construction industry in Nigeria.
3. To find out the risk factors perceived to be critical in Nigerian construction industry 

1.5 METHODOLOGY

Field survey research method will be adopted in carrying out the research, together with information from construction professionals and contractors regards to risk management and project performance in Nigeria construction industry. Questionnaire will be used to gather information (data) from the respondents, review of past similar works, journals, conference / seminar papers and online resources will also play a vital in data collection.

1.5.1  DATA COLLECTION

The data shall be collected after the design, distribution and collection of questionnaires to some professionals in the Nigeria construction industry. The questionnaire will contain various questions for response on the analysis of conventional procurement strategies and their application in Nigeria construction industry.

1.6 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

The scope of the study will only cover the relationship between risk  management and project performance in Nigerian construction industry. It shall be limited to some selected construction firms and projects that are located in Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory. Essentially attention will be given to the experienced professionals within the construction industry that span minor and major players in the construction industry.

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ISSUES AND CHALLENGES OF RISK MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES IN THE BANKING SECTOR

ISSUES AND CHALLENGES OF RISK MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES IN THE BANKING SECTOR

(A CASE STUDY OF FIRST BANK OF NIGERIA PLC.  LOKOJA BRANCH OFFICE)

ABSTRACT

This research is a study of an evaluation of risk management techniques in the banking sector. It also considers the effectiveness of the risk evaluation and management system of commercial adequate corrective measures. In evaluating those risk management techniques both primary and secondary means of data collection was used, to which simple percentage was also used to deduced the results. In conclusion the researcher work shows that there are proper understanding of risk and implication attached to banking industry which could form as basis for banker’ and policy makers could these it was recommended that proper awareness must exist within the bank on the cost of granting to since banking principles is not static.

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1  Background to the study

While financial institutions have faced difficulties over the years for a multitude of reasons. The major cause of serious banking problems continue to be directly related to (credit standard for borrowers), poor portfolio risk management or lack of attention to changes in economic or other circumstances that can lead to a deterioration in the credit standard of a bank.

Credit risk is most simply defined as the potential that a bank borrower will fail to meet its obligations in accordance with agreed term. The effective management of risk is a critical component of a comprehensive approach to risk management and essential to the long term success of any banking organization.

The researcher is interested in this study because by the time this study is completed, it will go a long way to highlight the various risk management techniques that will improve success in banking industries in terms of liquidity and profitability.

For most banks, loan are the largest and most sources of credit risk. However other sources of credit risk exist throughout the activities of bank, including in the banking book and in the trading book, and both on and off the balance sheet. The researcher will go a long way to state those risk banks are increasingly facing in their everyday activities. Such risk, includes, acceptance, interbank transactions, trade financing, foreign exchange and guarantees and the settlement of transaction. Bank managers are required to be proactive in their operation for effective management of all or some of these risk that its inefficient and effective management may be source to success of the activities of the bank.

1.2  Statement of the problem

Since a greater portion of banks income depends on credit or loans and advances. It therefore demand the putting in place a good lending and credit management policy which among other thinks will ensure that its income generating assets are of good quality which will implies bad credit policies, it will not properly analyze risk associated with their loans and advances, it has resulted in what is known as not performing loans which have seriously crowed banks profitability and have in some case lead to the drafted and final collapse of such banks.

1.3  Objectives of the study

The main objectives of the study is to examine the importance of risk management techniques in the banking sector, other objectives which the researcher work aims at achieving area:

i.            Identifying and examining the various risk to which the bank is exposed

ii.           Determining the concentration of risk and check possible abuse

iii.         Establishing the need for a comprehensive risk management process in order to identifying group basis measure assets management and control of the risk inherent in the banks and group basis

iv.         Identifying and measuring derivation from sound management (e.g excessive leverage) and recommendations corrective actions

v.          Establishing the need for maintaining adequate and comprehensive system of internet control in accordance with the risk inherent in the banking activities

1.4  Research hypothesis

According to Ojo (2013), hypothesis is a conjectural preposition an informed intelligent guess about the solution to a problem. Hypothesis is also defined as a concise statement, to be tested, that guides a researcher. Hypothesis is the relationship between two or more variable in the population under certain condition.

i.            Null hypothesis (Ho)

ii.           Alternative hypothesis (Hi)

-     Null hypothesis:  Hypothesis is said to be null if its state no difference or no relationship exist between two or more variables.

-     Alternative hypothesis: This is an hypothesis which described the relationship between or among different variable.

Ho:  Credit facilities rendered by the bank to the customer does not required collateral securities

Hi:   Credit facilities rendered by the bank to the customer requires collateral securities

Ho:  The bank does not organize credit department

Hi:   The bank organize credit department

Ho:  The banks does not have accept security in given out credit facilities

Ho:  The bank does not have credit policy

Hi:   The bank have credit policy.

1.5  Significance of the study

The significance of the study is to review the general method of risk evaluation and management of First bank of Nigeria Plc. it also intend to identify and highlight on area of inefficiency in the overall management at risk and given adequate recommendations on corrective measure. The researcher finding will be of great importance to student of business administration. This study is also therefore important for a number of reasons. Firstly, it serves as useful guide to the Nigeria banking sector. Secondly, it provide adequate knowledge on theoretical model for further study as regard impact of training workers performance. Finally, it provide a basis understanding on issues and challenges of risk management techniques in the Nigeria banking sector.

1.6  Scope of the study

Bank face many risk in the ordinary course of their activities. The study therefore will concentrate on the different types of risk the bank is exposed to and how the management of these risk effects the bank profitability. The period of study will cover 2011-2014.

1.7  Limitations and constraints

The limitations of this write up, is the problems encountered in the course of writing this project, and such limitations and constraints are identify and explain below.

i.            Financial constraints: It has to do with lack of fund, whereby the researcher is unable to move from place to place to another in search for information.

ii.         Inadequate data material: This is a constraints that include unavailability of adequate research took like journals, encyclopedia, newspaper etc.

iii.       Time horizon:The major limitations of this research work is time as a result of high academic schedule

iv.        Poor response: The researcher is faced with problem of poor response due to face that the research primarily depends on the use of questionnaire of the primary sources.

1.8  Definition of key terms

In this types of study, it is essential to guide the definition of the words used in the context of the project to help the understanding of the topic under view. Since certain terms are capable of different interpretation by different authors.

To avoid ambiguities and enhance clear understanding of the project, the terms are defined as follows:

Risk:According to encyclopedia, Oxford advanced learners dictionary, risk can be defined as that which is likely to cause problem or danger at some time in the future. Risk can also be seen as the possibility of bad happening at some time in the future, a situation that could be dangerous or have a bad result. In a nutshell, risk can be described as the way of putting a valuable or important material in a dangerous or unpleasant situation, in which it could be lost or damaged.

Risk management:Can be described as the skill or job of deciding what the risk are in a particular situation and taking action to prevent or reduce them. Risk management can also be defined as the principle or techniques used in order to promote and ensure the effective management procedures of risk. In order words it’s the management procedure designed in order to minimized the adverse effect of measuring the financial consequences of loss occurring.

Finance:Finance can be referred to those resources that are at the disposal of any business enterprise that issued for funding or financing the day to day operation of a business firm in the discharge of normal function

Risk evaluation:Risk evaluation is the extent of depth of risk or a risk and it peril.

Cash flow:According to Okeme (2014), cash flow can be defined as the movement of money into and out of a business as goods are brought into and out of a business as good are brought and sold. It is also the process of having enough to make payment when necessary.

Capital:Capital here means a large amount of money that is invested or is used to start a business enterprise.

Techniques:Techniques here means a special way of doing things in an organization either to minimized cost or achieved the organizational objectives as whole. It also has to do with skill of maintaining both human and material resources in an organization.

Issues:Issues can be defined as an important topic that people are discussing or arguing about. It is also seen as an important key term which any organization (most especially union) plans to raise against for effective and efficiency of the growth of that organization.

Challenges:Challenges here can be defined as a new or difficult task that tests the capacity and reliability of an organization in competitive market goals or aims.

Management:Management can be defined as the act of running and control both human capital and machinery in other to achieve a common objective.

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